2016年8月22日星期一

三招揀REITs財息兼收(信報)



美國聯儲局主席耶倫本周五將於Jackson Hole全球央行年會發表演說,美股上周五已偷步炒耶倫屆時可能談論加息時間,加上副主席費希爾表明美國經濟增長已逼近央行目標,預期未來數季仍有上升動力,儼然為加息造勢;慎防本周美滙指數反彈,拖累收息防守板塊如公用及電訊等回調。
港股昨天好淡爭持,恒生指數未能企穩23000點水平,一度挫144點,低見22792點,惟尾段拗腰倒升,收報22997點,升60點(0.26%)。權重股騰訊(00700)繼續發威,再次逼近上市新高,收報204.8元,彈升1.5%。
今年央行年會主題是「為未來設計彈性的貨幣政策框架」,由於前任聯儲局主席貝南奇曾在Jackson Hole年會透露量寬(QE)及扭曲操作(Operation Twist)意向,這次耶倫如何演繹主題,備受外界關注。不過,如果本周美滙漲幅過大,如重越97水平之上,則未必是好事,事關美滙轉強或迫使耶倫這位「國家隊領隊」再次放出親鴿言辭,以此引導美滙維持在區間上落。
從美股ETF資金流變化可見,投資者依然熱切尋找利息回報產品。除了新興市場及美國科技股受追捧,房地產信託基金(REITs)亦持續見資金流入,例如Vanguard房地產信託ETF(VNQ)上周及過去30個交易日分別錄得淨流入1.05億美元及10.13億美元。
值得留意的是,聯儲局幾可肯定想在年內再加息25個基點,若然敲定加息時間,勢將引發高息投資產品震盪。惟美國今年加息始終「一次起,兩次止」,環球低息環境難變,故此投資者對具較高利息或回報的投資產品依然趨之若鶩。
以下從3個角度分析5隻以本地業務為主的REITs,包括冠君產業信託(02778)、泓富產業信託(00808)、領展(00823)、置富產業信託(00778)及陽光房地產基金(00435)的最新形勢【表】。


一、收益率
REITs的吸引力在於高息。相較本港地產股平均收益率3.75厘,彭博估算泓富產業信託的收益率達5.33厘;其次為陽光房地產基金的4.95厘。回報率遠高於本港甲級商廈及商舖分別約3厘及2.6厘,以及美國10年期國債孳息的1.6厘。是「好息」一族最愛的產品。
二、浮息債務比例
一旦本港追隨美國加息,以HIBOR為參考標準的債務利息支出勢必增加;故此浮息債務比例愈低,企業財政愈穩健。以上5隻基金當中,陽光房地產基金的浮息債務比例僅29%,較有優勢。
三、槓桿比率
低槓桿比率的REITs,對息口變化的敏感度較小。例如領展的債務相對資產的比例僅16.5%,屬較低水平。故此,美國加息對其衝擊相對較輕。
在長期超低息大環境下,防守型股票價格近年來普遍跑贏周期性股份(見是日「信圖分析」),投資者對有穩定回報的投資產品更如飢似渴。當然,除了以上3項比較之外,追求長線穩定回報的投資者宜深入分析REITs旗下的物業類型、質素、租金回報和空置率等,如此則可增加勝算。

2016年8月9日星期二

9 things learned from Mapletree Commercial Trust’s 2016 EGM

By Adam Wong on August 2, 2016
文章連結

MBC
On 5 July 2016, Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU) (MCT) announced a proposed acquisition of an office and business park property, Mapletree Business City (MBC), for a purchase consideration of $1.78 billion. This will be MCT’s second acquisition since its IPO.
As a unitholder myself, I attended the extraordinary general meeting MCT held immediately after itsFY2016 AGM to find out more details about the proposed acquisition and to vote on the proposed resolutions.
Here are 9 things I learned from Mapletree Commercial Trust’s 2016 EGM:

1. MCT is acquiring Phase 1 of MBC

MCT is acquiring Phase 1 of MBC which comprises an office tower and three business park blocks. Phase 1 was completed in April 2010 while Phase 2 of MBC is currently under development and is due for completion this year. The leasehold for MBC (Phase 1) is 80 years till 2096.

2. Total acquisition cost is $1.86 billion

MBC acquisition cost
The purchase consideration is $1.78 billion which is a 2.3% and 2.8% discount to DTZ’s and Knight Frank’s independent valuation of MBC respectively. The total acquisition cost, however, is $1.86 billion after including acquisition fees paid to the manager ($8.9 million paid in units), stamp duty to the government ($53.4 million), and estimated professional fees and expenses ($16.2 million).

3. Acquisition is NAV and DPU accretive

NAV DPU accretion
The acquisition is expected to be accretive for net property income (NPI) yield, NAV, and distribution per unit (DPU). NPI yield will increase from 5.1% to 5.2%. NAV per share will increase to $1.31 and DPU will rise from 4.14 cents to 4.27 cents.

4. Exposure to the Alexandra/HabourFront office market

The management views MBC as a strategic addition to its portfolio. The property is of the largest integrated office and business park complexes in Singapore. It is located 10 minutes from the central business district (CBD) and directly connected to Labrador Park MRT station.
CBD alexandra habourfront
It attracts tenants who wish to be located near the CBD without having to pay sky-high rents. The Alexandra/HabourFront area offers rents which are 28.8% and 8.5% lower than Grade-A and Grade-B Core CBD offices respectively. Average office rent at MBC is $6.14 per square foot per month.
alexandra habourfront rents
Historically, prime office rents in Alexandra/HabourFront are also less volatile resilient than Grade-A and Grade-B Core CBD office rents.

5. Exposure to growing business park segment

Mapletree Business City is the closest business park to the CBD and the growing demand for business parks is evident in MNCs like Google, American Express, HSBC, Nike, SAP, Samsung and Unilever relocating from the CBD to MBC.
business city rent
Singapore business park rents are also extremely stable compared to office rents and there is no new business park supply expected until 2020. Average business park rent at MBC is $5.88 per square foot.

6. Committed occupancy rate is at 99.0%

MBC occupancy
MBC is a large property with a total net lettable area (NLA) of 1,708,218 square feet comprising 420,544 square feet in offices and 1,287,674 square feet in the business park. Even so, occupancy levels as at 30 April 2016 is 97.8%, while the committed occupancy rate is 99.0%. Weighted average lease expiry is 3.5 years and 97.5% of leases have average annual rental step-ups of around 3%.

7. Acquisition to be financed by a combination of debt and equity

MBC’s total acquisition cost of S$1.86 billion will be funded by loan facilities of up to $920 million and an issue of up to 795 million new units via a private placement to institutional investors and preferential offering to existing unitholders.

8. Some unitholders had questions and concerns

One unitholder felt that the acquisition was not in the interest of minority unitholders. He agreed that MBC was a good asset but thought that the acquisition price was too high and, as a result, the DPU accretion too low. He questioned why the management had to make the acquisition at this point in time when the office sector is soft and suggested that the deal might be better suited when the office sector improves.
Chairman Tsang Yam Pui expressed surprise at the unitholder’s view as many investors have long asked when MBC would be acquired by MCT. Tsang explained that an asset of MBC’s quality is hard to find and would be very expensive in the open market. The fact that MCT is able to acquire the property at a price that allows for DPU and NAV accretion is a positive for unitholders. The property would also give good organic growth in the long run. The chairman also said that a good time to acquire a good asset is when you can get it at the right price. In the case of MBC, MCT is already acquiring it a discount to the valuation set by two independent valuers.
Another unitholder asked if the supply of nearby office properties like Alexandra Technopark and Fragrance Building (formerly NOL Building) would affect MBC. CEO Sharon Lim replied that in the next four years, only 4% of office leases at MBC are expiring in FY2018/19. Furthermore, the quality of an asset like MBC is a world of difference compared to the rest.
A unitholder jokingly asked if the sale of MBC was being ‘forced’ onto MCT by its sponsor Mapletree. The Chairman reassured the unitholder that the acquisition is a case of a willing buyer and a willing seller. But he noted that the deal is a related party transaction which is why the management has gone through the procedure of obtaining independent valuations and the transaction scrutinized by its independent directors.

9. The proposed acquisition was voted through

The proposed acquisition of MBC was approved at the EGM with 95.51% of votes in favor of the resolution. MCT has since announced they plan to raise $529.1 million from the private placement and $515.2 million from the preferential offering.
Current unitholders are entitled to 17 new units for every 100 existing units at an issue price of $1.42 per unit. The issue price is an 8.4% discount to MCT’s last traded price of $1.55 (as at 1 August 2016). Unitholders can also apply for excess units. Books closure date is 3 August 2016 at 5:00 p.m.