2017年3月1日星期三

My updated reits組合(2017年3月)





經過半年的調整,除了日本的組合逆市下跌較大令人失望外😐,香港和新加坡的reits也相對穩定。整個組合價值跌了約6%。大市升,reits卻跌,少不免影響了心情。但收息情況令人滿意,如果不介意短期價格波動,也算達到收息預期。這段時間,筆者減低了新加坡reits的數目至9只,減持太集中於新加坡商場和office的reits。香港的reits也只有3只。日本的reits亦減持至4隻。預算整個組合半年後才會再re-adjust!也預留了資金空間在大跌市時(若有)增持部份reits,務求升市時有貨在手,坐收穩定現金流入,跌市時有錢買貨,這樣就能升跌皆樂。去蕪存菁後,省了要關心的打理時間!整個組合的派息率約5.5%,計入槓干扣除借貸利息,年派息大約是本金的10%!這也是我預期的目標!😄

2016年11月25日星期五

累積REITs計劃宜加壓力測試(信報)

2016年10月29日
高占 前瞻致勝

上周引用美國1972至2015年合共44年、176季的數據,回顧REITs在四個經濟階段的表現,發現即使在高增長高通脹階段(息口向上時期),REITs平均總回報(包括股價及派息)仍可跑贏股市及通脹。當然,這個數字是長期平均表現,不代表每季回報都是這樣,本周繼續分析累積REITs計劃其他風險及需要注意的地方。
數十年常態會否轉變?

重溫一下,所謂的四大階段包括:
①高於中位數增長與通脹時期;
②高於中位數增長及低於中位數通脹時期;
③低於中位數增長及高於中位數通脹時期;
④低於中位數增長與通脹時期。

長期來看,在這四個階段投資REITs或股市,平均都能錄得正回報,這是過去數十年的常態,只要有通脹,資產價格長期來說必會上升,不過,有沒有機會出現「新常態」?未來是否有可能步入一個經濟負增長及通縮並存的第五個階段?而這個階段的時間又會不會比其餘四個階段來得長?無人可以肯定,但在研究長期投資計劃時,我們必須考慮這個因素。

階段五是「現金為王」的時期,因為大部分資產價格都會下跌,在通縮環境下,租金有下調壓力, REITs收益減少,自然股價也會下跌,而且無人知道這個情況會延續多久。如果這個情況在你退休時開始發生,那麼,累積REITs計劃下的資產總值便會隨REITs價格大幅下跌,你是否能承受這種短期大跌風險?派息減少會否影響你預期的退休收益?雖然在「正常」情況下,經過幾十年的累積,REITs價格及每單位派息應該會有不錯的增長,在一個相對較高的股價或派息水平下出現調整,應該還是可以接受,但筆者認為保守起見,最好加入一個「壓力測試」。
加息陰霾帶來入市機會!

假設你預計退休前需要儲100萬個REITs單位, 每月才有足夠現金流應付退休所需,那麼,你必須想一想如果到時派息比預期少兩成將會如何?如果你覺得錢可能不夠用,就表示你要再考慮增加目標儲蓄單位的數目。
另一方面,退休後的現金流除了依靠派息外,亦可以透過分階段出售REITs單位來填補,你可以悲觀地假設REITs價格在你退休第一年便下跌兩成,其後每年下跌3%,看看在這一情況下,你每年預計所得的派息;加上預計分批出售所得的收益,能否填補現金流缺口。
由退休到人生完結可能有長達30、40年,就算踏入退休之齡遇上階段五,也千萬不要受市況波動影響,過早拋售手上過多的REITs單位,而應該按計劃長期分批出售。

據REIT.com統計,REITs指數在階段一至階段四的年平均波幅分別達15.9%、13.9%、18.2%及20.9%,本港數隻上市的REITs年度波幅達三成的比比皆是,波幅頗高,既然要長期累積,當然在價低時出手較有利,因此,投資者可設定一些指標監察價格走勢及動力,待價格偏低時才買入。
根據以往經驗,當加息風險再受關注的時候, REITs往往會有較大調整;同時,亦會為長線投資者帶來機會。

累積REITs計劃 加息不可怕(信報)


自2009年開始本港樓市展開一輪漫長升浪,儘管間中有調整,但短暫下跌過後又再向上,同期本地房地產信託基金(REITs)價格走勢亦非常強勁,自英國脫歐後顯著上升。有投資達人建議散戶應該長期累積REITs以製造現金流,為退休計劃做準備,同時亦可對沖樓價上升風險。筆者雖然贊成這個說法,不過也想跟各位分析一下有關風險,以制訂一套更佳策略。
可能有部分讀者未有聽過累積REITs投資策略,筆者先在此說明。過去幾年低息環境造就了不少投資者以融資方式將資產規模愈滾愈大,他們透過槓桿買入息口較高的債券,然後將投資債券所得的利息,再投資REITs,當REITs派發股息後,又可重新投入債券或REITs。
同時,由於期間REITs基本保持上升趨勢,因此銀行願意提供抵押貸款給投資者買入更多的REITs單位,情況類似樓價上升後,業主向銀行申請加按套取資金後再投資另一個物業。由於政府推出多輪辣招,現時要「一開二」、「二開三」等等的難度已大幅提升,但投資REITs卻沒有這個限制。
比買樓收租較具彈性
這個方法在過去7年行之有效,現在是否已經到水尾?這個方法的死穴是什麼?其中之一是利率在極短期內大幅急升,這裏指的短期可以是一兩個月,甚至是一兩周,原因可能是港元受到狙擊或其他黑天鵝事件。當然出現機率極低,但如果真的發生,環球股市與REITs價格很有可能暴瀉,當抵押品價格大跌,銀行當然會call孖展,如果手上沒有充足資金的話便會被迫斬倉造成損失。話雖如此,筆者相信這些投資達人一定已想好了Plan B,甚至是Plan C,並持續監控槓桿比例,及保持充裕的流動資金。
不宜誇大加息影響
以上只是極端例子,比較「正路」的想法或者是息口持續攀升,以收息為主要回報的REITs會否表現不濟,由過去幾年的狂牛變成未來幾年的狂熊?雖然歷史不會完美地重複,但觀察歷史數據有助客觀分析,讓我們回顧一下美國由1972年首季至2015年第四季(合共176季或44年)FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs Index及S&P500 扣除通脹後的實質總回報(股價加股息回報)*。
作者將期間美國經濟界定為4個階段,分別為:
階段一:高於中位數增長與通脹時期;
階段二:高於中位數增長及低於中位數通脹時期;
階段三:低於中位數增長及高於中位數通脹時期及
階段四:低於中位數增長與通脹時期。
增長以季度GDP增長率中位數1.43%作為分界線(年化增長率為5.71%),高於1.43%視作高增長,低於分界線則視作低增長;通脹則以季度增長率中位數0.8%為分界線(年化增長率為3.18%),高於0.8%視為高通脹,反之亦然。統計得出的結果是階段一REITs平均實質總回報為3.8%,高於標普500指數的2%;階段二兩者平均回報分別為8.7%及9.5%;階段三兩者分別為5.4%及6.5%;階段四(即現時宏觀經濟狀況)分別為16.5%及11.8%。
由此可見,加息對REITs影響未必如想像中可怕,下周繼續檢討如何制訂優化策略。
*資料來源來自REIT.com
goaljim00@gmail.com

2016年11月1日星期二

15 things learned from Starhill Global REIT’s FY2016 AGM

orchard-road

By Adam Wong on November 1, 2016


Starhill Global REIT (SGX:P40U) owns retail and office properties in Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, China, and Japan. Among its properties, Singaporeans would be very familiar with two of Starhill’s retail malls –  Ngee Ann City and Wisma Atria along Orchard Road.
Starhill is one of my REIT investments when I purchased it in January this year when Singapore REIT prices took a pounding. It has since returned over 17.7% (including dividends). But, regardless of how positive returns are at the moment, you can be sure that I and the rest of us here at The Fifth Person are keeping a watchful eye on our investments and the prevailing economic climate.
So with the recent news that Singapore’s mall vacancies are at their highest level in a decade, I attended Starhill Global REIT’s recent FY2016 AGM to find out more about how its management planned to navigate the increasingly tough retail conditions.
Here are 15 things I learned from Starhill Global’s FY2016 AGM:
  • At first glance, Starhill’s FY2016 results look like they took a tumble. Revenue, net property income (NPI), and distribution per unit (DPU) are all down 25-30%. However, the reason for the drop is because Starhill moved the end of its fiscal year to June. Which means FY2015 figures are calculated over 18 months while FY2016 figures are over 12 months. So if you compare FY2016 with the previous 12-month period, Starhill actually performed better: Gross revenue increased 11.4% to $219.7 million, NPI increased 6.9% to $170.3 million, and DPU increased to 1.4% to 5.18 cents. Starhill’s current yield (TTM) is 6.4%.
  • Growth in revenue and NPI was mainly driven by Myer Centre Adelaide which Starhill acquired for A$288 million in 2015. Starhill’s Australia portfolio revenue and NPI grew 120% and 89% respectively. In comparison, Starhill’s Singapore portfolio remained flat with revenue and NPI inching up 1% and 0.6% respectively. Overall, Singapore still contributes the bulk of revenue at 62.6%. Australia and Malaysia contribute 19.5% and 14.6% respectively.
  • Starhill Global REIT was one of the first few to venture into Australia in 2010. CEO Ho Sing explained that Australia’s retail scene is “quite strange”. Major retail brands like Uniqlo, Zara, and H&M only entered Australia in 2013-2014 with many major brands yet to enter the country. He believes that this along with changing consumer behavior presents an upside for the retail market in Australia.
  • Starhill Global REIT divested its property in Japan, Roppongi Terzo, for ¥2.5 billion.The management also plans to divest the rest of its Japanese properties eventually. The CEO said that Tokyo Olympics in 2020 might drive valuations up and the management will look for divestment opportunities leading up to the Olympics.
  • Portfolio valuation grew 0.7% to $3.14 billion. This was mainly due to revaluation gains in the REIT’s Singaporean and Australian properties which were offset by the Roppongi Terzo divestment in Japan and portfolio devaluations in China and Malaysia (due to forex loss).
  • Overall occupancy rate is 95.1%. CEO Ho Sing also highlighted the fact that Starhill’s occupancy rates have remained largely resilient even during recessions. During the financial crisis of 2008, Starhill’s Singapore portfolio retail occupancy rate was 98.3%, while its office occupancy rate was 92.4%. Moving forward, there is no new retail or office supply in Singapore’s Orchard Road area from 2016 to 2018.
  • Starhill Global REIT’s gearing is at 35% and average cost of debt is 3.09%. Weighted debt to maturity is 3.1 year with a large portion of debt (35% of total debt; $400 million) due to mature in FY2017/2018. 100% of Starhill’s debt is fixed/hedged via a combination of fixed rate debt, interest rate swaps, and interest rate caps.
  • A unitholder asked why the REIT’s Malaysia revenue was falling. Chairman Tan Sri Dato (Dr) Francis Yeoh explained that it was due to the weakening ringgit. Lot 10 in Kuala Lumpur is on a master lease with built-in rental reversions for the next three years and that the mall is, in fact, doing well. Lot 10 is located at the prime Bintang Walk area which the Malaysia government has earmarked as a key shopping destination for locals and tourists. The government is also building an MRT station in Bintang Walk which will open right in front of Lot 10 and bring 100 million people in ridership annually. While currency deprecation is a problem, the chairman said “we can’t play God’s role” and control which way foreign exchange rates will go. However, the quality of the asset will endure and revenues will increase.
  • Another unitholder asked about the management’s strategy for Starhill Gallery in Kuala Lumpur. The chairman replied that Starhill Gallery is a large luxury mall with over 300,000 square feet of retail space. However, there are not enough good luxury brands to fill the mall entirely, thus the management is looking to bring in restaurants and other brands like Apple to attract more blended shopper traffic. On the plus side, the management has convinced Louis Vuitton to build a global store in Starhill Gallery; the only other cities to have a Louis Vuitton global store are Paris, Shanghai, and Tokyo. Major property developments are also being built opposite Starhill Gallery including the headquarters of YTL Corporations (Starhill Global REIT’s sponsor). The chairman admitted that the property is “not (doing) as good as we want it to be” but it will get better.
  • A unitholder questioned the management about Starhill’s falling revenues in China. The chairman explained that the Chinese market is extremely competitive. In Chengdu (where Starhill’s Renhe Spring Zongbei property is located), 100 million square feet of new malls were built after Starhill acquired its property. The chairman joked, “When the Chinese build, they build massively and (properties) spring up like mushrooms, and our prime property becomes ‘not-so-prime’ anymore.” He also said that another trend that is hurting sales is the clampdown on corruption and gift-buying. Businessmen in China used to buy gifts as a way of doing business in the past but it is looked upon as corruption now. The good news is that the management has managed to secure one of the largest furniture retailers in China, Markor International Home Furnishings, as an anchor tenant for Renhe Spring Zongbei which will generate more stable revenues. The chairman revealed that he doesn’t think the retail situation in Chengdu will improve and the REIT will look to divest its Chinese property at the right time.
  • A unitholder asked where Starhill Global REIT was planning to acquire its next properties. The chairman replied that the REIT will focus on Singapore, Malaysia, and Australia as these are the three markets they know very well. Starhill was ahead in Australia and the management predicted correctly that retail closing hours would extend later (from 5 p.m. to 7 p.m.) due to the growing Asian population and their shopping habits. For Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, the high-speed rail will be good for Starhill’s properties in both cities.
  • A unitholder asked what the management planned to do to attract shoppers to its malls. CEO Ho Sing replied that the management is working with relevant agencies like the Orchard Road Business Association to promote events in Orchard Road. He gave examples like the Japan Matsuri Summer Festival where Orchard Road was closed to traffic, the annual Christmas light-up, and the F1 race. The CEO also mentioned the Great Singapore Sale though he said the concept has gotten tired over the years. The chairman then reassured unitholders that the management is aware of the changing spending patterns of customers and online shopping, and doing all it can to attract shoppers. The retail experience has to be crafted better now and be compelling enough to attract people to physically visit a mall, and it is in the interests of the REIT to enhance the sales of its retailers so they can pay higher rents.
  • In his presentation, the CEO highlighted that Starhill Global REIT doesn’t own the space occupied by Isetan in Wisma Atria; it belongs to Isetan. The space was closed for renovations for a year which affected shopper traffic in the mall. It has since progressively opened and Isetan also launched Japan Food Town which has improved shopper traffic. During the Q&A, the chairman revealed that he was trying to persuade the Isetan president to launch an All-Japan concept in Wisma Atria that received positive response from shoppers when it was launched in Lot 10, Kuala Lumpur. He mentioned things like Honda robots and ikebana classes that attracted shoppers in Malaysia and he brought this back to his point about creating unique and compelling retail experiences for shoppers. If this concept was executed in Singapore, it would complement the mall and be very good for Wisma Atria without the REIT having to spend any money.
  • A unitholder asked if the management was considering an investment in Jurong due to the Singapore-Kuala Lumpur high-speed rail (HSR). The chairman joked that the HSR was his idea but he doesn’t know if the government will pay him a royalty for it! He then digressed and said that Kuala Lumpur, long-term, is a good market where property prices are still attractive. If Malaysia can get its politics rights, Kuala Lumpur would be a compelling city to invest in. He said condominium prices in Kuala Lumpur are, prime-to-prime, 600% cheaper compared to Singapore. But the level of architects is the same and the building materials come from Malaysia anyway! With the HSR, the chairman views that KL prices will converge toward Singapore’s in time like how prices in London and Paris converged with the London-Paris line. The unitholder keenly asked the chairman if he would invest in Kuala Lumpur then. The chairman said yes but currency depreciation is a concern and the management has to take a long-term view of whether a property will be yield-accretive over 5-10 years after taking that into account.
  • Finally, a unitholder then asked the chairman what his views were on the Singapore property market moving forward. The chairman replied that he has been through many property cycles as a property developer himself but that this particular cycle was ‘broken’. The Singapore government had to control property speculation and inflation here like in China. The worry for the government at the time was that average Singaporeans were complaining that they couldn’t afford a home. Due to the printing of money by foreign governments, foreign buyers with an influx of cash speculated on private properties driving their prices up — which, in turn, pulled HDB prices up. The government had to introduce cooling measures to cut the speculation because, even though they welcome foreign investment, they didn’t want Singaporeans to suffer from sky-high property prices. However, the chairman thinks that the government has overdone the cooling measures and the market is almost dead for foreign buyers. He shared that a lot of property developers are in trouble and face heavy penalties of $30-40 million if they can’t sell their developments on time. But they have no market to sell to. He views that the government should readjust its policies to encourage more economic activity and he is optimistic that the government is watchful and that they won’t fall asleep on this. The chairman revealed that the high-end property market is the worse he has ever seen in the last few years and feels that it can’t get any worse. If it does, there will be collateral problems with banks and loans which he believes the government will take into account and not allow to happen. Lastly, he advised everyone to be patient and that the change won’t be immediate, but it is his personal view that it will become better than what it is today.

2016年10月8日星期六

房託怕加息嗎?(信報)

2016年9月17日

房託怕加息嗎?

《信報》本月初舉行了題目為「樓價再升,海外物業尋寶」的講座,筆者有幸獲邀主講關於房託的投資策略。出席論壇最大益處,是能夠從問答環節了解投資者心態。
筆者最近出席的數個論壇,投資者都不約而同地問:「房託在加息期的表現如何?」
首先,本港投資者所談及的加息期,一般指美國聯儲局的加息周期。因為港元與美元掛鈎,所以香港並無獨立貨幣政策,息口將隨美元利率浮動。故此美國進入加息周期,必會令香港息口上升。新加坡元名義上不與美元掛鈎,但是操作上坡元亦跟隨美元上落,新加坡政府亦不主動議息,故此美元利率上升,亦會影響坡元利率。
澳日房託主導亞太
亞太區房託中的三分之一是澳洲房託,另外三分之一是日本。澳洲與日本有獨立貨幣政策,美國加息不會直接令該兩國加息。尤其澳洲,今年已經減息兩次,現時的基本利率仍然為1.5%。假如有需要,該國實際上仍有減息空間。日本方面,零息政策已經推行多年,現時亦看不到有太多誘因令日本政府加息。事實上,年初香港房託下跌的時候,澳洲及日本房託卻節節上升。因此亞太區房託基金上半年普遍錄得正增長。
緩慢加息利好價格
對於房託而言,加息速度才是重點。債券與房託最大的不同,在於債券推出之後,利息收入不變;而房託股息來自租金,只要租金上升,房託派息將會繼續上升。在利率上升周期,經濟一般向好,租金將會增加。所以如果加息速度偏緩,加租將會抵消加息影響,令房託的價格繼續上升。美國自七十年代的數據顯示,於過去40年,美國有22年處於加息周期,當中有18年房託價格錄得正回報。
雖然亞太區房託歷史較短,只有16年,但是價格上升最快的時間亦是於2003至2007年間當利率處於上升的周期。
美國聯儲局現時取態仍屬溫和,或會再加息一至兩次,而且聯儲局年中已經調低明後兩年的加息預期。溫和加息幅度,對房託而言是好消息。
另一方面,房託在跌巿中,一般價格會先跌後反彈,而股息的收入下跌有限。商業地產的租約期一般較長,香港和新加坡的辦公室租約一般為3年;澳洲的辦公室租約可長達10年;部分物流資產租約甚至長達20年。在金融危機之中,只要租客不破產,租金收入應可保持,對房託的派息能力影響較低。所以當金融巿場穩定下來,資金再度入市的時候,房託一般反彈力相對較強,價格在第二或第三年的反彈能力或更高。
長線心態投資為宜
故此我們經常建議,投資者適宜以3至5年甚至更長期的心態投資房託。房託的短期表現的確與當地股巿及氣氛掛鈎。所以大型機構投資者都以長期持有的方式,對沖房託的短期波幅。他們亦以地域為本(如亞太區房託),對沖個別房地產巿場的風險。投資者只要不自亂陣腳,房託可以成為長期持有的資產類別。
作者為安泓投資的投資總監,負責管理公司所有投資項目。他為《信報》/信網撰文,與讀者分享投資見解。

2016年9月10日星期六

我在IB的新加坡房託組合

筆者經過兩個月時間,初步建立了自己的新加坡房託收息組合。收到第一次的派息,大都集中在八月份,沒有任何扣減稅項。新加坡房託多是每季派息,三個月收息一次,眨眼間又是下次收成期,很有滿足感覺。頻繁派息,令人不太介意每日股價上落,只要不是跌太多就可以了。這段期間,組合不計派息輕微增長了3%,算是意外收獲!期間利息支出只佔股息收入2成不到!IB的報表詳盡,很清楚列出要付的利息及應收的股息,方便核對。我的S reits的借貸比率是60%,並未用盡,有15%buffer!借的是坡紙,買的是新加坡資產,對沖了大部份匯率風險。IB的操作很暢順,用message centre提出問題也覆得快,解決很多初期的不明白。上手了都幾好玩!期間有少許不如意事就是Mapletree Commercial Trust供股,海外股東無得供,卻又不能買賣供股權,見財化水,透過IB和基金經理交涉,海外機構投資者可以供,散戶則不能,平白損失了機會。供股價是S$1.41,正股價是S$1.52😞!猶幸供股後股價沒有回落,還升了不少(S$1.63),也算是有安慰😊!這段時間花了很多時間學習操作IB,筆者太太有輕微怨語,少了時間和她談心😊希望以後熟習後可以少花時間在操作上,多享受家庭之樂。



2016年8月22日星期一

三招揀REITs財息兼收(信報)



美國聯儲局主席耶倫本周五將於Jackson Hole全球央行年會發表演說,美股上周五已偷步炒耶倫屆時可能談論加息時間,加上副主席費希爾表明美國經濟增長已逼近央行目標,預期未來數季仍有上升動力,儼然為加息造勢;慎防本周美滙指數反彈,拖累收息防守板塊如公用及電訊等回調。
港股昨天好淡爭持,恒生指數未能企穩23000點水平,一度挫144點,低見22792點,惟尾段拗腰倒升,收報22997點,升60點(0.26%)。權重股騰訊(00700)繼續發威,再次逼近上市新高,收報204.8元,彈升1.5%。
今年央行年會主題是「為未來設計彈性的貨幣政策框架」,由於前任聯儲局主席貝南奇曾在Jackson Hole年會透露量寬(QE)及扭曲操作(Operation Twist)意向,這次耶倫如何演繹主題,備受外界關注。不過,如果本周美滙漲幅過大,如重越97水平之上,則未必是好事,事關美滙轉強或迫使耶倫這位「國家隊領隊」再次放出親鴿言辭,以此引導美滙維持在區間上落。
從美股ETF資金流變化可見,投資者依然熱切尋找利息回報產品。除了新興市場及美國科技股受追捧,房地產信託基金(REITs)亦持續見資金流入,例如Vanguard房地產信託ETF(VNQ)上周及過去30個交易日分別錄得淨流入1.05億美元及10.13億美元。
值得留意的是,聯儲局幾可肯定想在年內再加息25個基點,若然敲定加息時間,勢將引發高息投資產品震盪。惟美國今年加息始終「一次起,兩次止」,環球低息環境難變,故此投資者對具較高利息或回報的投資產品依然趨之若鶩。
以下從3個角度分析5隻以本地業務為主的REITs,包括冠君產業信託(02778)、泓富產業信託(00808)、領展(00823)、置富產業信託(00778)及陽光房地產基金(00435)的最新形勢【表】。


一、收益率
REITs的吸引力在於高息。相較本港地產股平均收益率3.75厘,彭博估算泓富產業信託的收益率達5.33厘;其次為陽光房地產基金的4.95厘。回報率遠高於本港甲級商廈及商舖分別約3厘及2.6厘,以及美國10年期國債孳息的1.6厘。是「好息」一族最愛的產品。
二、浮息債務比例
一旦本港追隨美國加息,以HIBOR為參考標準的債務利息支出勢必增加;故此浮息債務比例愈低,企業財政愈穩健。以上5隻基金當中,陽光房地產基金的浮息債務比例僅29%,較有優勢。
三、槓桿比率
低槓桿比率的REITs,對息口變化的敏感度較小。例如領展的債務相對資產的比例僅16.5%,屬較低水平。故此,美國加息對其衝擊相對較輕。
在長期超低息大環境下,防守型股票價格近年來普遍跑贏周期性股份(見是日「信圖分析」),投資者對有穩定回報的投資產品更如飢似渴。當然,除了以上3項比較之外,追求長線穩定回報的投資者宜深入分析REITs旗下的物業類型、質素、租金回報和空置率等,如此則可增加勝算。