冠君:售朗豪坊後未有合適投資或派特別息(信報)

冠君產業信託(02778)行政總裁及投資總監王家琦表示，放售旗下朗豪坊辦公樓一事，代理本周剛開始在內地路演尋找買家，尚未成事，若落實出售，變現後或有更好的再投資機會，繼續以香港項目為優先，可整幢大廈收購、自行發展或與人合資；若未有合適的投資機會，便可能派發特别息；所得資金不會用作償還債務，因效益不高。
王家琦説，旗下三項資產之中，花園道三號價值逾千億元，難覓買家；而朗豪坊商場則是上任行政總裁李澄明及主席羅嘉瑞辛苦經營多年所建立的品牌，不想出售；冠君見市道暢旺，自己買不到合適資產，便索性轉做賣家，出售朗豪坊辦公樓，按高賣低買原則，待某個周期時段再出手收購。
她笑稱，作價250億元是代理心目中的意向價，希望得到理想回報，若市場出價不合意，不會盲目出售，朗豪坊辦公樓的收入仍有機會繼續上升。
王家琦指出，花園道三號的平均租金仍較市價低很多，租金水平續有上升空間，會是主要動力。朗豪坊商場受電梯事故影響下，業務表現仍跑贏大市，底租及分成租金收入均有不錯升幅；由於分成租金比率約20%，對底租租金構成壓力，但不表示底租會大跌；7月及8月至今人流好，按年有升幅。

冠君產業信託再次破頂

冠君產業信託(02778)今早跑贏，最新升6.6%，報5.97元，創上市新高，成交額1950萬元。
基金本月初公布，有意放售旺角朗豪坊辦公大樓(不涉及朗豪坊商場部分)。
負責探討出售可能性的第一太平戴維斯昨天宣布，推出物業進行全球招標，意向價250億元，挑戰全港甲級寫字樓以至商用物業造價新高，呎價料約3.56萬元。第一太平戴維斯透露，現時已有2至3家中資財團洽談。(信報)

筆者認為冠君重新估值及趁市場最高價套現物業，跟著派發特別股息是對股東的最佳回報。長久以來冠君賬面值PB都是徘徊0.5上下，令人失望。相較其它reits大幅折讓更甚。這次標售朗豪坊辦公大樓，很可能是資產變現分派第一步，應該陸續有來。羅家爭產糾紛是主因，分錢最實際。這交易單是現金回收已超市值很多，小股東再次耐心等待。

香港樓市瘋狂，我應該把手上的reits放掉嗎？(覆網友來信)

以下是網友G君的來函，筆者想和大家分享怎樣看待已經高升的房託。

天路客大哥，

REITS（Link, Yuexiu, MT, Champion) 從我去年年底建倉至今，一路表現喜人，但同時也更加提醒自己要考慮可能面對的風險。

有感于目前香港樓市實在過於瘋狂，個人感覺樓市出現較大調整的可能性越來越大。Reits和樓市表現有很強的短期關聯性，儘管我長期看好REITS這項資產，但最近一直也在考慮要不要做一些部署，未雨綢繆去準備可能出現的樓市調整。但是應該如何部署，卻沒有太清晰的方向。

最簡單做法當然是減持，但這樣又好像和長線投資的思維和方針所抵觸。一時之間有些左右為難。很想聽聽前輩的看法。

感謝不吝賜教。

G上

筆者覆函：

G,

組合中的房地產信托基金升值了很多是值得高興的事，擔心價格高了風險增加是人之常情。筆者是這樣調整心態的：我投資房地產信托基金的目的是收取穩定的現金流，價格升了提供了buffer應付將來價格的可能調正。只要是正數我就更能安心的持股下去，高出低入是很難拿捏掌握最佳時機的。相對高位放了，以為可低價補回，可能以後也沒有機會補回，過去自己也試過幾次後悔不已。所以要問自己你投資房託的目的是什麼？如果追逐股價上上落落，其實房地產信托基金不比很多其他股票好！例如科網股升幅更加凌厲可人。你持有這幾隻信托基金主要是在酒店商場和寫字樓，與私人住宅市場關係不大。如冠軍產業信托主要是甲級寫字樓及酒店，甲級寫字樓仍在上升軌跡，也有真正的需求托住，個人認為即使住宅市場下跌，也不會影響這個板塊。領展房托所持有的是百多個商場街市，平民所需，與住宅地產市道不太相關。換一角度來看，如果著眼在累積能產生持續穩定現金流的優質資產上，感覺會很不一樣。跌市時反而會高興，因為可以更便宜購入更多，我正是這樣心態，總是覺得現價很高，希望可以跌多一些，方便儲貨，可惜市場未肯回調。不過每人的心理質素不同，倘若這環境令自己內在焦慮升高過於承擔能力，則可減持至自己安心地步，這也是好的。心安最重要，患得患失反而壞事。每次投資決定後都檢討，總有能學習的地方，身量擴大了，下次可能承受焦慮的能力又增加了，這就是生命成長！祝福你身量日日擴大，快樂投資,享受投資！

天路客

息率趨升 惟房託續受追捧(轉載信報)

上周美國聯邦儲備局議息，決定今年第二次加息。現時巿場預測，在今年底之前，約有一半機會聯儲局會再加息一次。而且聯儲局今年第一次討論縮表，但是巿場的反應仍然平和，例如美國10年期債到今年底的預期息率仍然只會有20點子的漲幅，甚至較今年初的利息更低。這反映巿場情緒仍然平穩，有利房地產和房託的表現。
特朗普選舉時候承諾的大型基建只聞樓梯響，科技發展又壓低了能源價格，所以巿場預期美國通脹率仍然溫和。在這情況之下，聯儲局實在缺乏理由大幅加息。
亞太區房託在去年第四季一度下跌了超過15%，但今年房地產無論租金還是樓價，表現仍然向好。例如澳洲的辦公室巿場今年普遍造好，位處悉尼的澳洲交易所大樓剛剛獲香港註冊的投資者垂青，以4.5厘左右的租金回報率成交，創出歷史新低。至於巿郊及其他級數較低的資產，租金回報率亦由年初的7厘左右，下跌至6厘左右，樓價升幅約為14%。
香港零售商舖的租金這兩年表現較弱。在主要購物區，地舖租金相對2012年錄得兩三成的跌幅。但是另一方面，辦公室表現仍然穩健，中環租金升至歷史高位之餘，港島東和九龍東的租金這幾年仍然錄得升幅。因此，美利道停車場和啟德機場的大型混合發展地皮拍賣價格皆錄得歷史新高，證明發展商仍然看好香港後巿。
商業樓巿繼續造好，加上息口走勢漸趨明朗，房託的表現亦普遍向好。這幾個月的升幅已經補回去年底的跌幅；以12個月計，回報已經重回正數。當然，房託所派的股息與租金收入掛鈎。房託股價的短期升跌甚少會影響股息回報。中長期而言，房託的表現視乎加息的速度。現時加息速度穩中有序，證明經濟發展穩健，是有利房地產的環境。
另外一個考慮則是房託和長息之間的息差。2007年的時候，美國10年期債券的利率在4.5厘及5.0厘之間徘徊，與亞太區房託的股息率差不多。房地產的風險當然比穩健國家的10年期國債為高，兩者之間出現零息差，證明投資者過度看好後巿，願意以同樣的現金收入，換取樓巿或會繼續升值的回報。
在上次金融危機之後，雖然歐美日的利率都降到歷史低位，但是房託股息率與國債的息差並未如上一周期般收窄。現時亞太區房託的息率約為4.5厘，相對美國10年期債，息差約為200點子。這個水平的息差相對17年的歷史平均息差，其實算高。在亞太區房託之中，尤其以新加坡巿場最為保守。當地房託自2013年起，平均價格都對淨資產值有所折讓。
換句話說，巿場一直明白現時的低息環境總會終結， 資產價格升得再快，都仍然有一定水位。在過去兩年之中，實際上利率已經加了幾次，但是房地產的價格仍然上升。一方面是因為部分資產類別的租金持續上升，另一方面則是因為息差仍然健康。(楊書健)

《大行報告》麥格理升冠君(02778.HK)目標價至5.51元

麥格理發表報告表示，預期冠君產業(02778.HK)旗下甲級寫字樓綜合大廈花園道三號((前稱花旗銀行大廈)，於未來三年租金收入將可大幅增長40%，由目前每呎租金78元升至110元。強勁的租金增長應能蓋過朗豪坊疲弱的租金增長。

該行稱，上調對冠君每股資產淨值75%至8.08元，對冠君的目標價上調26%至5.51元，並看好第三季銷售能見底回升，預期內地企業的租賃需求能推動花園道三號租金及價值提升。

麥格理指出，受惠內地企業來港設辦公室的需求帶動，同區中銀大廈呎租己上升至130元，交易廣場呎租升至140元，國金中心二期呎租達到170元。花園道三號今年有23.4%的面積租約完結，13.7%在明年完結，加上今年將有約5%面積空出及目前有4%空置，預期會是黃金機會去重估該商廈價值。

呎價5萬 恒地233億奪美利道地王(信報)

中環美利道商業地王由恒基地產（00012）以高達232.8億元奪得，擊敗多家中港發展商，作價略高於市場預期上限近5%，成為政府賣地史上最貴地皮，打破今年2月鴨脷洲利南道臨海住宅地皮創下的168.56億元售價紀錄。美利道商業地王每方呎樓面地價50064元，亦創商業地皮樓面呎價新高，高於恒地2014年以每方呎樓面地價1.38萬元投得的尖沙咀中間道停車場重建項目，更打破中環中心頂層成交建築呎價4.06萬元的紀錄。
歷來最貴地皮 超上限5%
恒地表示，計劃在美利道地皮上興建優質寫字樓兼附設商舖，預計項目約於2022年建成，總投資額逾260億元，相當於每方呎成本價55914元，其中建築成本價約每方呎5849元。
市場人士認為，恒地將會長期持有該物業用作收租，估計落成後每方呎月租150元至200元，租金回報率約3.5厘至4.5厘。鄰近的中環長江集團中心目前平均呎租約160元，同區平均呎租136元。此外，恒地旗下尖沙咀中間道銀座式商廈項目預計2019年啟用，相信可帶來穩定回報。
上述商業地王原為中環美利道停車場大廈，地盤面積2880方米（約3.1萬方呎），可建樓面4.32萬方米（46.5萬方呎），高度限制不准超過190米（主水平基準以上），預計可建超過40層高的甲級商廈，不可分拆出售；按規定發展商需要興建提供過百個車位的公眾停車場（私家車位102個、電動車位69個），若果停車場建在地底，將豁免計入可建樓面。地皮估值223.2億元，每方呎4.8萬元，批地價較估值溢價逾4%。
美利道地王為中環核心商業區內逾20年來唯一新供應，位處和記大廈與中銀大廈之間，上周五截標時，除恒地之外，亦吸引本地發展商長實（01113）、恒隆地產（00101）、南豐、華置（00127）及新地（00016）入標，中資對手包括中渝置地（01224），世房（00813）則夥拍信置（00083）及新世界發展（00017）出手。
恒地副主席李家誠【圓圖】表示，很高興投得中環金融商業核心地段的罕有地皮，會把項目發展為繼中環國際金融中心後又一標誌性商廈。現時中區寫字樓需求殷切，空置率低，每方呎租金可觀，地皮價錢合理。他又說，主席李兆基及該公司在港從事地產發展超過半世紀，「我們熱愛香港，對香港前景充滿信心。」
建地標商廈 呎租料逾160元
萊坊高級董事及估價及諮詢主管林浩文預計，發展商將持有物業長期收租，估計呎租達160元以上，租金回報率約3.5厘至4.5厘。理想城市企業估值部主管張聖典表示，恒地有重建尖沙咀中間道多層停車場經驗，有利準確計算投資回報，預計呎租介乎150元至170元。高力國際亞洲區估價及諮詢服務行政董事張翹楚稱，以樓面呎價5萬元成交合乎預期，將來呎租可達170元至200元。交銀國際研究部聯席董事劉雅瀚預計，項目回本價為每方呎6萬元或收益率至少要3厘，相信區內現有的核心商廈，例如長實旗下的中環中心，會較受惠於是次成交。

爆升的冠君產業信託(2778.HK)

筆者組合中的冠君產業信託(2778.HK)由年初的HK$4.21到今天收$5.21，短短5個月升了23%！！與同期其他的reits比較：領展(823) +11%⬆；置富(778) +1.5%⬆；越秀(405) +12%⬆；升幅可謂驚人。特別是這幾天港股升市中，其他reits牛皮或下跌，冠君可算突出，且屢創新高。

市場上都在估算後天截標的中環花園道舊停車場做價若干，預計投標者眾，成交極可能是天價。

筆者好奇，翻查冠君2016年報，看看持有的花園道3號帳面估價多少。此物業共163萬平方呎,估值393億，即平均約$24000/呎。筆者大膽估算後天的成交樓面地價約$35000至40000/呎，項目完成計入成本每呎將超過$45000/呎。現價冠軍的PB值只是0.59，帳面折讓之高已經是香港眾reits之冠。如果計入新價，粗略估值將增加340億，PB將會降低至約0.38！
筆者多疑，咁筍？如果有錢一定全面收購，然後拆骨，一定賺到笑😆😆！咁簡單的思維，冇理由大股東唔知？立即去etnet看看最近冠君的股權變化如何。

鷹君和羅生是冠軍的大股東,由2016年3月開始，幾乎每個月都靜靜吸入冠君股份，持股量由62.91%增持至今年4月27日66%，即約一億八仟萬股，平均每月1400萬股😎。筆者相信香港第一隻有可能私有化的reits應該非冠君莫屬。雖然大股東的耐性有幾長不知道，但身為小股民的筆者能夠以大折讓持有優質核心物業，收住息來等，應該是不錯的選擇。

(溫馨提示：此文章乃筆者即興之作，數據也沒經詳細考核，非對讀者投資建議，純粹遊戲文章自娛。且市場上常常出現估對了卻輸錢的例子。說不定出現反高潮，成交真的出現天價，卻是好消息出貨都唔出奇。慎之！)

專門投資Data Centre的Keppel DC Reits

筆者發現這隻新加坡上市的Keppel DC Reits (AJBU)幾特別，是亞太區第一隻專注投資於Data Centre(數據中心)的房地產投資信託基金。它的領域包括主機託管，設施齊全的周邊和核心裝置。公司13個data centre均位中心樞紐。如Gore Hill Data Centre，S25；T25；Citadel100 Data Centre；iseek Data Centre；GV7 Data Centre，Basis Bay和Almere Data Centre。資產主要位於澳洲，英國，德國，意大利，馬來西亞，新加坡和愛爾蘭。
作為分散行業及地域風險，除了主流的商場、寫字樓、酒店、工業，物流、醫療reits外，數據中心也算是擁有穩定收益的選擇！現息率約5%，預計息率6.1%。現價SGD$1.22

詳細資料請參閱Keppel公司網址連結

以下是OCBC的研究報告：
OCBC Investment Research has reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating on Singapore-listed Keppel DC REIT, citing growth potential in the demand for data centre properties.
This demand is underpinned by expected increases in data creation, and outsourcing, said the bank in an investment report on 3 April.
Citing figures from information consulting company BroadGroup, OCBC noted that this demand is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of between 4.7% to 14.7% in key cities that Keppel DC REIT is exposed to from 2016 to 2021.
In addition, OCBC also looks upon favourable on Keppel DC REIT’s weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 6.9 years, making it one of the most defensive REITs in Singapore, the firm opined.
“Based on our forecasts, [Keppel DC REIT] is offering distribution yields of 6.1% and 6.3% for FY17F and FY18F, which is attractive relative to its peers’ Bloomberg consensus average yield of 3.8% and 4.1%, respectively”, said OCBC.
The bank has maintained a fair value estimate of SGD1.39 on the data centre REIT.

My updated reits組合(2017年3月)

經過半年的調整，除了日本的組合逆市下跌較大令人失望外😐，香港和新加坡的reits也相對穩定。整個組合價值跌了約6%。大市升，reits卻跌，少不免影響了心情。但收息情況令人滿意，如果不介意短期價格波動，也算達到收息預期。這段時間，筆者減低了新加坡reits的數目至9只，減持太集中於新加坡商場和office的reits。香港的reits也只有3只。日本的reits亦減持至4隻。預算整個組合半年後才會再re-adjust！也預留了資金空間在大跌市時(若有)增持部份reits，務求升市時有貨在手，坐收穩定現金流入，跌市時有錢買貨，這樣就能升跌皆樂。去蕪存菁後，省了要關心的打理時間！整個組合的派息率約5.5%，計入槓干扣除借貸利息，年派息大約是本金的10%！這也是我預期的目標！😄

累積REITs計劃宜加壓力測試(信報)

2016年10月29日
高占 前瞻致勝

上周引用美國1972至2015年合共44年、176季的數據，回顧REITs在四個經濟階段的表現，發現即使在高增長高通脹階段（息口向上時期），REITs平均總回報（包括股價及派息）仍可跑贏股市及通脹。當然，這個數字是長期平均表現，不代表每季回報都是這樣，本周繼續分析累積REITs計劃其他風險及需要注意的地方。
數十年常態會否轉變?

重溫一下，所謂的四大階段包括：
①高於中位數增長與通脹時期；
②高於中位數增長及低於中位數通脹時期；
③低於中位數增長及高於中位數通脹時期；
④低於中位數增長與通脹時期。

長期來看，在這四個階段投資REITs或股市，平均都能錄得正回報，這是過去數十年的常態，只要有通脹，資產價格長期來說必會上升，不過，有沒有機會出現「新常態」？未來是否有可能步入一個經濟負增長及通縮並存的第五個階段？而這個階段的時間又會不會比其餘四個階段來得長？無人可以肯定，但在研究長期投資計劃時，我們必須考慮這個因素。

階段五是「現金為王」的時期，因為大部分資產價格都會下跌，在通縮環境下，租金有下調壓力， REITs收益減少，自然股價也會下跌，而且無人知道這個情況會延續多久。如果這個情況在你退休時開始發生，那麼，累積REITs計劃下的資產總值便會隨REITs價格大幅下跌，你是否能承受這種短期大跌風險？派息減少會否影響你預期的退休收益？雖然在「正常」情況下，經過幾十年的累積，REITs價格及每單位派息應該會有不錯的增長，在一個相對較高的股價或派息水平下出現調整，應該還是可以接受，但筆者認為保守起見，最好加入一個「壓力測試」。
加息陰霾帶來入市機會!

假設你預計退休前需要儲100萬個REITs單位， 每月才有足夠現金流應付退休所需，那麼，你必須想一想如果到時派息比預期少兩成將會如何？如果你覺得錢可能不夠用，就表示你要再考慮增加目標儲蓄單位的數目。
另一方面，退休後的現金流除了依靠派息外，亦可以透過分階段出售REITs單位來填補，你可以悲觀地假設REITs價格在你退休第一年便下跌兩成，其後每年下跌3%，看看在這一情況下，你每年預計所得的派息；加上預計分批出售所得的收益，能否填補現金流缺口。
由退休到人生完結可能有長達30、40年，就算踏入退休之齡遇上階段五，也千萬不要受市況波動影響，過早拋售手上過多的REITs單位，而應該按計劃長期分批出售。

據REIT.com統計，REITs指數在階段一至階段四的年平均波幅分別達15.9%、13.9%、18.2%及20.9%，本港數隻上市的REITs年度波幅達三成的比比皆是，波幅頗高，既然要長期累積，當然在價低時出手較有利，因此，投資者可設定一些指標監察價格走勢及動力，待價格偏低時才買入。
根據以往經驗，當加息風險再受關注的時候， REITs往往會有較大調整；同時，亦會為長線投資者帶來機會。

累積REITs計劃 加息不可怕(信報)

自2009年開始本港樓市展開一輪漫長升浪，儘管間中有調整，但短暫下跌過後又再向上，同期本地房地產信託基金（REITs）價格走勢亦非常強勁，自英國脫歐後顯著上升。有投資達人建議散戶應該長期累積REITs以製造現金流，為退休計劃做準備，同時亦可對沖樓價上升風險。筆者雖然贊成這個說法，不過也想跟各位分析一下有關風險，以制訂一套更佳策略。
可能有部分讀者未有聽過累積REITs投資策略，筆者先在此說明。過去幾年低息環境造就了不少投資者以融資方式將資產規模愈滾愈大，他們透過槓桿買入息口較高的債券，然後將投資債券所得的利息，再投資REITs，當REITs派發股息後，又可重新投入債券或REITs。
同時，由於期間REITs基本保持上升趨勢，因此銀行願意提供抵押貸款給投資者買入更多的REITs單位，情況類似樓價上升後，業主向銀行申請加按套取資金後再投資另一個物業。由於政府推出多輪辣招，現時要「一開二」、「二開三」等等的難度已大幅提升，但投資REITs卻沒有這個限制。
比買樓收租較具彈性
這個方法在過去7年行之有效，現在是否已經到水尾？這個方法的死穴是什麼？其中之一是利率在極短期內大幅急升，這裏指的短期可以是一兩個月，甚至是一兩周，原因可能是港元受到狙擊或其他黑天鵝事件。當然出現機率極低，但如果真的發生，環球股市與REITs價格很有可能暴瀉，當抵押品價格大跌，銀行當然會call孖展，如果手上沒有充足資金的話便會被迫斬倉造成損失。話雖如此，筆者相信這些投資達人一定已想好了Plan B，甚至是Plan C，並持續監控槓桿比例，及保持充裕的流動資金。
不宜誇大加息影響
以上只是極端例子，比較「正路」的想法或者是息口持續攀升，以收息為主要回報的REITs會否表現不濟，由過去幾年的狂牛變成未來幾年的狂熊？雖然歷史不會完美地重複，但觀察歷史數據有助客觀分析，讓我們回顧一下美國由1972年首季至2015年第四季（合共176季或44年）FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs Index及S&P500 扣除通脹後的實質總回報（股價加股息回報）*。
作者將期間美國經濟界定為4個階段，分別為：
階段一：高於中位數增長與通脹時期；
階段二：高於中位數增長及低於中位數通脹時期；
階段三：低於中位數增長及高於中位數通脹時期及
階段四：低於中位數增長與通脹時期。
增長以季度GDP增長率中位數1.43%作為分界線（年化增長率為5.71%），高於1.43%視作高增長，低於分界線則視作低增長；通脹則以季度增長率中位數0.8%為分界線（年化增長率為3.18%），高於0.8%視為高通脹，反之亦然。統計得出的結果是階段一REITs平均實質總回報為3.8%，高於標普500指數的2%；階段二兩者平均回報分別為8.7%及9.5%；階段三兩者分別為5.4%及6.5%；階段四（即現時宏觀經濟狀況）分別為16.5%及11.8%。
由此可見，加息對REITs影響未必如想像中可怕，下周繼續檢討如何制訂優化策略。
*資料來源來自REIT.com
goaljim00@gmail.com

15 things learned from Starhill Global REIT’s FY2016 AGM

By Adam Wong on November 1, 2016

Starhill Global REIT (SGX:P40U) owns retail and office properties in Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, China, and Japan. Among its properties, Singaporeans would be very familiar with two of Starhill’s retail malls –  Ngee Ann City and Wisma Atria along Orchard Road.

Starhill is one of my REIT investments when I purchased it in January this year when Singapore REIT prices took a pounding. It has since returned over 17.7% (including dividends). But, regardless of how positive returns are at the moment, you can be sure that I and the rest of us here at The Fifth Person are keeping a watchful eye on our investments and the prevailing economic climate.

So with the recent news that Singapore’s mall vacancies are at their highest level in a decade, I attended Starhill Global REIT’s recent FY2016 AGM to find out more about how its management planned to navigate the increasingly tough retail conditions.

Here are 15 things I learned from Starhill Global’s FY2016 AGM:

• At first glance, Starhill’s FY2016 results look like they took a tumble. Revenue, net property income (NPI), and distribution per unit (DPU) are all down 25-30%. However, the reason for the drop is because Starhill moved the end of its fiscal year to June. Which means FY2015 figures are calculated over 18 months while FY2016 figures are over 12 months. So if you compare FY2016 with the previous 12-month period, Starhill actually performed better: Gross revenue increased 11.4% to $219.7 million, NPI increased 6.9% to $170.3 million, and DPU increased to 1.4% to 5.18 cents. Starhill’s current yield (TTM) is 6.4%.
• Growth in revenue and NPI was mainly driven by Myer Centre Adelaide which Starhill acquired for A$288 million in 2015. Starhill’s Australia portfolio revenue and NPI grew 120% and 89% respectively. In comparison, Starhill’s Singapore portfolio remained flat with revenue and NPI inching up 1% and 0.6% respectively. Overall, Singapore still contributes the bulk of revenue at 62.6%. Australia and Malaysia contribute 19.5% and 14.6% respectively.
• Starhill Global REIT was one of the first few to venture into Australia in 2010. CEO Ho Sing explained that Australia’s retail scene is “quite strange”. Major retail brands like Uniqlo, Zara, and H&M only entered Australia in 2013-2014 with many major brands yet to enter the country. He believes that this along with changing consumer behavior presents an upside for the retail market in Australia.
• Starhill Global REIT divested its property in Japan, Roppongi Terzo, for ¥2.5 billion.The management also plans to divest the rest of its Japanese properties eventually. The CEO said that Tokyo Olympics in 2020 might drive valuations up and the management will look for divestment opportunities leading up to the Olympics.
• Portfolio valuation grew 0.7% to $3.14 billion. This was mainly due to revaluation gains in the REIT’s Singaporean and Australian properties which were offset by the Roppongi Terzo divestment in Japan and portfolio devaluations in China and Malaysia (due to forex loss).
• Overall occupancy rate is 95.1%. CEO Ho Sing also highlighted the fact that Starhill’s occupancy rates have remained largely resilient even during recessions. During the financial crisis of 2008, Starhill’s Singapore portfolio retail occupancy rate was 98.3%, while its office occupancy rate was 92.4%. Moving forward, there is no new retail or office supply in Singapore’s Orchard Road area from 2016 to 2018.
• Starhill Global REIT’s gearing is at 35% and average cost of debt is 3.09%. Weighted debt to maturity is 3.1 year with a large portion of debt (35% of total debt; $400 million) due to mature in FY2017/2018. 100% of Starhill’s debt is fixed/hedged via a combination of fixed rate debt, interest rate swaps, and interest rate caps.
• A unitholder asked why the REIT’s Malaysia revenue was falling. Chairman Tan Sri Dato (Dr) Francis Yeoh explained that it was due to the weakening ringgit. Lot 10 in Kuala Lumpur is on a master lease with built-in rental reversions for the next three years and that the mall is, in fact, doing well. Lot 10 is located at the prime Bintang Walk area which the Malaysia government has earmarked as a key shopping destination for locals and tourists. The government is also building an MRT station in Bintang Walk which will open right in front of Lot 10 and bring 100 million people in ridership annually. While currency deprecation is a problem, the chairman said “we can’t play God’s role” and control which way foreign exchange rates will go. However, the quality of the asset will endure and revenues will increase.
• Another unitholder asked about the management’s strategy for Starhill Gallery in Kuala Lumpur. The chairman replied that Starhill Gallery is a large luxury mall with over 300,000 square feet of retail space. However, there are not enough good luxury brands to fill the mall entirely, thus the management is looking to bring in restaurants and other brands like Apple to attract more blended shopper traffic. On the plus side, the management has convinced Louis Vuitton to build a global store in Starhill Gallery; the only other cities to have a Louis Vuitton global store are Paris, Shanghai, and Tokyo. Major property developments are also being built opposite Starhill Gallery including the headquarters of YTL Corporations (Starhill Global REIT’s sponsor). The chairman admitted that the property is “not (doing) as good as we want it to be” but it will get better.
• A unitholder questioned the management about Starhill’s falling revenues in China. The chairman explained that the Chinese market is extremely competitive. In Chengdu (where Starhill’s Renhe Spring Zongbei property is located), 100 million square feet of new malls were built after Starhill acquired its property. The chairman joked, “When the Chinese build, they build massively and (properties) spring up like mushrooms, and our prime property becomes ‘not-so-prime’ anymore.” He also said that another trend that is hurting sales is the clampdown on corruption and gift-buying. Businessmen in China used to buy gifts as a way of doing business in the past but it is looked upon as corruption now. The good news is that the management has managed to secure one of the largest furniture retailers in China, Markor International Home Furnishings, as an anchor tenant for Renhe Spring Zongbei which will generate more stable revenues. The chairman revealed that he doesn’t think the retail situation in Chengdu will improve and the REIT will look to divest its Chinese property at the right time.
• A unitholder asked where Starhill Global REIT was planning to acquire its next properties. The chairman replied that the REIT will focus on Singapore, Malaysia, and Australia as these are the three markets they know very well. Starhill was ahead in Australia and the management predicted correctly that retail closing hours would extend later (from 5 p.m. to 7 p.m.) due to the growing Asian population and their shopping habits. For Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, the high-speed rail will be good for Starhill’s properties in both cities.
• A unitholder asked what the management planned to do to attract shoppers to its malls. CEO Ho Sing replied that the management is working with relevant agencies like the Orchard Road Business Association to promote events in Orchard Road. He gave examples like the Japan Matsuri Summer Festival where Orchard Road was closed to traffic, the annual Christmas light-up, and the F1 race. The CEO also mentioned the Great Singapore Sale though he said the concept has gotten tired over the years. The chairman then reassured unitholders that the management is aware of the changing spending patterns of customers and online shopping, and doing all it can to attract shoppers. The retail experience has to be crafted better now and be compelling enough to attract people to physically visit a mall, and it is in the interests of the REIT to enhance the sales of its retailers so they can pay higher rents.
• In his presentation, the CEO highlighted that Starhill Global REIT doesn’t own the space occupied by Isetan in Wisma Atria; it belongs to Isetan. The space was closed for renovations for a year which affected shopper traffic in the mall. It has since progressively opened and Isetan also launched Japan Food Town which has improved shopper traffic. During the Q&A, the chairman revealed that he was trying to persuade the Isetan president to launch an All-Japan concept in Wisma Atria that received positive response from shoppers when it was launched in Lot 10, Kuala Lumpur. He mentioned things like Honda robots and ikebana classes that attracted shoppers in Malaysia and he brought this back to his point about creating unique and compelling retail experiences for shoppers. If this concept was executed in Singapore, it would complement the mall and be very good for Wisma Atria without the REIT having to spend any money.
• A unitholder asked if the management was considering an investment in Jurong due to the Singapore-Kuala Lumpur high-speed rail (HSR). The chairman joked that the HSR was his idea but he doesn’t know if the government will pay him a royalty for it! He then digressed and said that Kuala Lumpur, long-term, is a good market where property prices are still attractive. If Malaysia can get its politics rights, Kuala Lumpur would be a compelling city to invest in. He said condominium prices in Kuala Lumpur are, prime-to-prime, 600% cheaper compared to Singapore. But the level of architects is the same and the building materials come from Malaysia anyway! With the HSR, the chairman views that KL prices will converge toward Singapore’s in time like how prices in London and Paris converged with the London-Paris line. The unitholder keenly asked the chairman if he would invest in Kuala Lumpur then. The chairman said yes but currency depreciation is a concern and the management has to take a long-term view of whether a property will be yield-accretive over 5-10 years after taking that into account.
• Finally, a unitholder then asked the chairman what his views were on the Singapore property market moving forward. The chairman replied that he has been through many property cycles as a property developer himself but that this particular cycle was ‘broken’. The Singapore government had to control property speculation and inflation here like in China. The worry for the government at the time was that average Singaporeans were complaining that they couldn’t afford a home. Due to the printing of money by foreign governments, foreign buyers with an influx of cash speculated on private properties driving their prices up — which, in turn, pulled HDB prices up. The government had to introduce cooling measures to cut the speculation because, even though they welcome foreign investment, they didn’t want Singaporeans to suffer from sky-high property prices. However, the chairman thinks that the government has overdone the cooling measures and the market is almost dead for foreign buyers. He shared that a lot of property developers are in trouble and face heavy penalties of $30-40 million if they can’t sell their developments on time. But they have no market to sell to. He views that the government should readjust its policies to encourage more economic activity and he is optimistic that the government is watchful and that they won’t fall asleep on this. The chairman revealed that the high-end property market is the worse he has ever seen in the last few years and feels that it can’t get any worse. If it does, there will be collateral problems with banks and loans which he believes the government will take into account and not allow to happen. Lastly, he advised everyone to be patient and that the change won’t be immediate, but it is his personal view that it will become better than what it is today.

房託怕加息嗎?(信報)

2016年9月17日

楊書健 行業微觀

房託怕加息嗎?

《信報》本月初舉行了題目為「樓價再升，海外物業尋寶」的講座，筆者有幸獲邀主講關於房託的投資策略。出席論壇最大益處，是能夠從問答環節了解投資者心態。

筆者最近出席的數個論壇，投資者都不約而同地問：「房託在加息期的表現如何？」

首先，本港投資者所談及的加息期，一般指美國聯儲局的加息周期。因為港元與美元掛鈎，所以香港並無獨立貨幣政策，息口將隨美元利率浮動。故此美國進入加息周期，必會令香港息口上升。新加坡元名義上不與美元掛鈎，但是操作上坡元亦跟隨美元上落，新加坡政府亦不主動議息，故此美元利率上升，亦會影響坡元利率。

澳日房託主導亞太

亞太區房託中的三分之一是澳洲房託，另外三分之一是日本。澳洲與日本有獨立貨幣政策，美國加息不會直接令該兩國加息。尤其澳洲，今年已經減息兩次，現時的基本利率仍然為1.5%。假如有需要，該國實際上仍有減息空間。日本方面，零息政策已經推行多年，現時亦看不到有太多誘因令日本政府加息。事實上，年初香港房託下跌的時候，澳洲及日本房託卻節節上升。因此亞太區房託基金上半年普遍錄得正增長。

緩慢加息利好價格

對於房託而言，加息速度才是重點。債券與房託最大的不同，在於債券推出之後，利息收入不變；而房託股息來自租金，只要租金上升，房託派息將會繼續上升。在利率上升周期，經濟一般向好，租金將會增加。所以如果加息速度偏緩，加租將會抵消加息影響，令房託的價格繼續上升。美國自七十年代的數據顯示，於過去40年，美國有22年處於加息周期，當中有18年房託價格錄得正回報。

雖然亞太區房託歷史較短，只有16年，但是價格上升最快的時間亦是於2003至2007年間當利率處於上升的周期。

美國聯儲局現時取態仍屬溫和，或會再加息一至兩次，而且聯儲局年中已經調低明後兩年的加息預期。溫和加息幅度，對房託而言是好消息。

另一方面，房託在跌巿中，一般價格會先跌後反彈，而股息的收入下跌有限。商業地產的租約期一般較長，香港和新加坡的辦公室租約一般為3年；澳洲的辦公室租約可長達10年；部分物流資產租約甚至長達20年。在金融危機之中，只要租客不破產，租金收入應可保持，對房託的派息能力影響較低。所以當金融巿場穩定下來，資金再度入市的時候，房託一般反彈力相對較強，價格在第二或第三年的反彈能力或更高。

長線心態投資為宜

故此我們經常建議，投資者適宜以3至5年甚至更長期的心態投資房託。房託的短期表現的確與當地股巿及氣氛掛鈎。所以大型機構投資者都以長期持有的方式，對沖房託的短期波幅。他們亦以地域為本（如亞太區房託），對沖個別房地產巿場的風險。投資者只要不自亂陣腳，房託可以成為長期持有的資產類別。

作者為安泓投資的投資總監，負責管理公司所有投資項目。他為《信報》/信網撰文，與讀者分享投資見解。

我在IB的新加坡房託組合

筆者經過兩個月時間，初步建立了自己的新加坡房託收息組合。收到第一次的派息，大都集中在八月份，沒有任何扣減稅項。新加坡房託多是每季派息，三個月收息一次，眨眼間又是下次收成期，很有滿足感覺。頻繁派息，令人不太介意每日股價上落，只要不是跌太多就可以了。這段期間，組合不計派息輕微增長了3%，算是意外收獲！期間利息支出只佔股息收入2成不到！IB的報表詳盡，很清楚列出要付的利息及應收的股息，方便核對。我的S reits的借貸比率是60%，並未用盡，有15%buffer！借的是坡紙，買的是新加坡資產，對沖了大部份匯率風險。IB的操作很暢順，用message centre提出問題也覆得快，解決很多初期的不明白。上手了都幾好玩！期間有少許不如意事就是Mapletree Commercial Trust供股，海外股東無得供，卻又不能買賣供股權，見財化水，透過IB和基金經理交涉，海外機構投資者可以供，散戶則不能，平白損失了機會。供股價是S$1.41，正股價是S$1.52😞！猶幸供股後股價沒有回落，還升了不少(S$1.63)，也算是有安慰😊！這段時間花了很多時間學習操作IB，筆者太太有輕微怨語，少了時間和她談心😊希望以後熟習後可以少花時間在操作上，多享受家庭之樂。

三招揀REITs財息兼收(信報)

美國聯儲局主席耶倫本周五將於Jackson Hole全球央行年會發表演說，美股上周五已偷步炒耶倫屆時可能談論加息時間，加上副主席費希爾表明美國經濟增長已逼近央行目標，預期未來數季仍有上升動力，儼然為加息造勢；慎防本周美滙指數反彈，拖累收息防守板塊如公用及電訊等回調。
港股昨天好淡爭持，恒生指數未能企穩23000點水平，一度挫144點，低見22792點，惟尾段拗腰倒升，收報22997點，升60點（0.26%）。權重股騰訊（00700）繼續發威，再次逼近上市新高，收報204.8元，彈升1.5%。
今年央行年會主題是「為未來設計彈性的貨幣政策框架」，由於前任聯儲局主席貝南奇曾在Jackson Hole年會透露量寬（QE）及扭曲操作（Operation Twist）意向，這次耶倫如何演繹主題，備受外界關注。不過，如果本周美滙漲幅過大，如重越97水平之上，則未必是好事，事關美滙轉強或迫使耶倫這位「國家隊領隊」再次放出親鴿言辭，以此引導美滙維持在區間上落。
從美股ETF資金流變化可見，投資者依然熱切尋找利息回報產品。除了新興市場及美國科技股受追捧，房地產信託基金（REITs）亦持續見資金流入，例如Vanguard房地產信託ETF（VNQ）上周及過去30個交易日分別錄得淨流入1.05億美元及10.13億美元。
值得留意的是，聯儲局幾可肯定想在年內再加息25個基點，若然敲定加息時間，勢將引發高息投資產品震盪。惟美國今年加息始終「一次起，兩次止」，環球低息環境難變，故此投資者對具較高利息或回報的投資產品依然趨之若鶩。
以下從3個角度分析5隻以本地業務為主的REITs，包括冠君產業信託（02778）、泓富產業信託（00808）、領展（00823）、置富產業信託（00778）及陽光房地產基金（00435）的最新形勢【表】。

一、收益率
REITs的吸引力在於高息。相較本港地產股平均收益率3.75厘，彭博估算泓富產業信託的收益率達5.33厘；其次為陽光房地產基金的4.95厘。回報率遠高於本港甲級商廈及商舖分別約3厘及2.6厘，以及美國10年期國債孳息的1.6厘。是「好息」一族最愛的產品。
二、浮息債務比例
一旦本港追隨美國加息，以HIBOR為參考標準的債務利息支出勢必增加；故此浮息債務比例愈低，企業財政愈穩健。以上5隻基金當中，陽光房地產基金的浮息債務比例僅29%，較有優勢。
三、槓桿比率
低槓桿比率的REITs，對息口變化的敏感度較小。例如領展的債務相對資產的比例僅16.5%，屬較低水平。故此，美國加息對其衝擊相對較輕。
在長期超低息大環境下，防守型股票價格近年來普遍跑贏周期性股份（見是日「信圖分析」），投資者對有穩定回報的投資產品更如飢似渴。當然，除了以上3項比較之外，追求長線穩定回報的投資者宜深入分析REITs旗下的物業類型、質素、租金回報和空置率等，如此則可增加勝算。

9 things learned from Mapletree Commercial Trust’s 2016 EGM

By Adam Wong on August 2, 2016
文章連結

On 5 July 2016, Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX: N2IU) (MCT) announced a proposed acquisition of an office and business park property, Mapletree Business City (MBC), for a purchase consideration of $1.78 billion. This will be MCT’s second acquisition since its IPO.

As a unitholder myself, I attended the extraordinary general meeting MCT held immediately after itsFY2016 AGM to find out more details about the proposed acquisition and to vote on the proposed resolutions.

Here are 9 things I learned from Mapletree Commercial Trust’s 2016 EGM:

1. MCT is acquiring Phase 1 of MBC

MCT is acquiring Phase 1 of MBC which comprises an office tower and three business park blocks. Phase 1 was completed in April 2010 while Phase 2 of MBC is currently under development and is due for completion this year. The leasehold for MBC (Phase 1) is 80 years till 2096.

2. Total acquisition cost is $1.86 billion

The purchase consideration is $1.78 billion which is a 2.3% and 2.8% discount to DTZ’s and Knight Frank’s independent valuation of MBC respectively. The total acquisition cost, however, is $1.86 billion after including acquisition fees paid to the manager ($8.9 million paid in units), stamp duty to the government ($53.4 million), and estimated professional fees and expenses ($16.2 million).

3. Acquisition is NAV and DPU accretive

The acquisition is expected to be accretive for net property income (NPI) yield, NAV, and distribution per unit (DPU). NPI yield will increase from 5.1% to 5.2%. NAV per share will increase to $1.31 and DPU will rise from 4.14 cents to 4.27 cents.

4. Exposure to the Alexandra/HabourFront office market

The management views MBC as a strategic addition to its portfolio. The property is of the largest integrated office and business park complexes in Singapore. It is located 10 minutes from the central business district (CBD) and directly connected to Labrador Park MRT station.

It attracts tenants who wish to be located near the CBD without having to pay sky-high rents. The Alexandra/HabourFront area offers rents which are 28.8% and 8.5% lower than Grade-A and Grade-B Core CBD offices respectively. Average office rent at MBC is $6.14 per square foot per month.

Historically, prime office rents in Alexandra/HabourFront are also less volatile resilient than Grade-A and Grade-B Core CBD office rents.

5. Exposure to growing business park segment

Mapletree Business City is the closest business park to the CBD and the growing demand for business parks is evident in MNCs like Google, American Express, HSBC, Nike, SAP, Samsung and Unilever relocating from the CBD to MBC.

Singapore business park rents are also extremely stable compared to office rents and there is no new business park supply expected until 2020. Average business park rent at MBC is $5.88 per square foot.

6. Committed occupancy rate is at 99.0%

MBC is a large property with a total net lettable area (NLA) of 1,708,218 square feet comprising 420,544 square feet in offices and 1,287,674 square feet in the business park. Even so, occupancy levels as at 30 April 2016 is 97.8%, while the committed occupancy rate is 99.0%. Weighted average lease expiry is 3.5 years and 97.5% of leases have average annual rental step-ups of around 3%.

7. Acquisition to be financed by a combination of debt and equity

MBC’s total acquisition cost of S$1.86 billion will be funded by loan facilities of up to $920 million and an issue of up to 795 million new units via a private placement to institutional investors and preferential offering to existing unitholders.

8. Some unitholders had questions and concerns

One unitholder felt that the acquisition was not in the interest of minority unitholders. He agreed that MBC was a good asset but thought that the acquisition price was too high and, as a result, the DPU accretion too low. He questioned why the management had to make the acquisition at this point in time when the office sector is soft and suggested that the deal might be better suited when the office sector improves.

Chairman Tsang Yam Pui expressed surprise at the unitholder’s view as many investors have long asked when MBC would be acquired by MCT. Tsang explained that an asset of MBC’s quality is hard to find and would be very expensive in the open market. The fact that MCT is able to acquire the property at a price that allows for DPU and NAV accretion is a positive for unitholders. The property would also give good organic growth in the long run. The chairman also said that a good time to acquire a good asset is when you can get it at the right price. In the case of MBC, MCT is already acquiring it a discount to the valuation set by two independent valuers.

Another unitholder asked if the supply of nearby office properties like Alexandra Technopark and Fragrance Building (formerly NOL Building) would affect MBC. CEO Sharon Lim replied that in the next four years, only 4% of office leases at MBC are expiring in FY2018/19. Furthermore, the quality of an asset like MBC is a world of difference compared to the rest.

A unitholder jokingly asked if the sale of MBC was being ‘forced’ onto MCT by its sponsor Mapletree. The Chairman reassured the unitholder that the acquisition is a case of a willing buyer and a willing seller. But he noted that the deal is a related party transaction which is why the management has gone through the procedure of obtaining independent valuations and the transaction scrutinized by its independent directors.

9. The proposed acquisition was voted through

The proposed acquisition of MBC was approved at the EGM with 95.51% of votes in favor of the resolution. MCT has since announced they plan to raise $529.1 million from the private placement and $515.2 million from the preferential offering.

Current unitholders are entitled to 17 new units for every 100 existing units at an issue price of $1.42 per unit. The issue price is an 8.4% discount to MCT’s last traded price of $1.55 (as at 1 August 2016). Unitholders can also apply for excess units. Books closure date is 3 August 2016 at 5:00 p.m.

24 Key Numbers Investors Should Know About Parkway Life REIT

Parkway Life REIT  (SGX: C2PU) is one of the many companies and real estate investment trusts (REITs) in Singapore’s stock market that have released their annual reports over the past few months.

The annual report is a great place to learn more about a company or trust. In the case of Parkway Life REIT, its latest 2015 Annual Report had a chockful of interesting numbers. Here are 24 figures that may be worth noting:

At the end of 2015, Parkway Life REIT had a total of 47 properties across Singapore, Japan, and Malaysia. The portfolio was valued at around S$1.6 billion as at 31 December 2015, placing the REIT as one of the largest healthcare REITs in the region.
Singapore accounted for 63% of gross revenue in 2015, followed by Japan at 36.5%. The remainder came from Malaysia.
Parkway Life REIT’s distribution per unit (DPU) was 13.29 Singapore cents in 2015. This is an 86.6% jump from its initial annualised DPU of 6.32 cents seen in 2007. The accumulated DPU from the REIT’s IPO (initial public offering) up till the fourth-quarter of 2015 is 81.1 cents. Parkway Life REIT’s IPO price was $1.28 per unit.
Parkway Life REIT entered the Japan market in 2008. Since then, it has been able to build up a portfolio of 43 healthcare properties in Japan that are worth a total of S$590 million.
During the year, Parkway Life REIT acquired seven new Japanese nursing homes. This allowed the REIT to make its first foray into the Aichi Prefecture in Japan. This followed its maiden divestment made in late 2014, when seven other Japan nursing homes were sold off for a profit of $9.11 million.
Parkway Life REIT has a fairly healthy debt profile. The REIT has a weighted average term to loan maturity of 3.5 years and a gearing of around 35.3% at the end of 2015. There is no year in which more than 32% of its total debt will come due.
On Parkway Life REIT’s leases, 64% of its gross revenue has a CPI-linked revision formulae. Furthermore, 98% of its leases (by nett lettable area) comes with a rent review provision. At the end of 2015, Parkway Life REIT had a weighted average lease term to expiry of 9.12 years. Only 2.5% of its leases will expire between 2016 and 2020.
Parkway Life REIT also presented some stats on the healthcare sector. The global population aged 60 and above will rise to almost 22% by 2050, up from 12.3% today. Closer to home, the number of Singaporeans aged 65 and above has doubled to 440,000 in 2015 over the past 15 years. This is expected to more than double to 900,000 by 2030. As a result, Singapore’s healthcare spending is expected to reach more than S$13 billion in 2020.
There could be competition for medical tourism. The medical tourism market in Malaysia has nearly doubled since 2010. Meanwhile, revenue growth for Thailand’s hospitals was up to 15% year-on-year. Singapore, though, remains popular for high-end treatment.

我買日本 Reits的原因

1) 分散地域風險，亞太區雖是增長最好的地方，個別地區，不同sector表現仍有很大分別！如新加坡及香港酒店業表現向下，日本澳洲則較佳。

2) 日本旅遊業增長勢頭甚佳，預料海外遊客會由現時2000萬增長至2020年奧運會的4000萬！但酒店的增長數目緩慢，入住率不斷攀升。

3) Office辦公室的表演也不錯，使用率長期穩定地維持在較高水平。空置率預料會由現時的4%跌至2017年的3%，Office workers的數目在主要商業地區如東京、神奈川県、千葉縣、埼玉縣等也上升，對辦公室的需求增加。

4)日本reits的息率較低，一般3-4%。惟日本股市前段時間因英國脫歐，日圓急升，股市下跌，提供購入機會。現在reits距離今年高位有10-15%空間。相對香港reits已屢創新高，日本reits值搏率較高。

5)現在掌握的操作平台可方便地以低息1.22-1.5%借入日圓去買日本資產，可以抵消匯率風險，只剩下價格風險！

文章‘’12 things Learned from Ascendas Hospitality Trust’s FY2016 AGM‘’的讀後感

文章的作者親身參與Ascendas hospitality Trust(AHT)的股東週年大會，並將所見所聞記下來，對了解這隻reits很有幫助。新加坡的房託基金投資地域不僅限於星加坡，更遍布全世界。AHT 80%的投資在澳洲、日本、中國等地方的酒店。這對分散地域風險很有幫助！這幾年日本的酒店業務增長不俗，增長達23%。值得大家注意！(筆者考慮直接投資日本酒店房託)，會後的股東答問也提供了有用訊息，原來新加坡房託不能直接經營業務(operational business),只能有被動收入(passive income)，所以AHT另外就另外成立了business trust經營業務和酒店發展。現時只有2間酒店under reit，其餘的9間under business trust.待發展成熟後就轉移到reit那邊。這叫做stapled security.即把2隻不同運作原理的信託‘’釘‘’在一起，以達致最好投資效益！這令筆者不期然拿香港的房託作比較，香港的房託雖然也有十幾年歷史，但發展相對落後很多，無論在經營策略，範圍，投資選擇等都很局限，盼望政府能主動研究引導房託的發展，從新加坡政府學習，在政策及法規上扶助房託業務的發展，使香港整體房託跟上世界潮流，才不辜負世界金融中心這美譽！

以下是該文章：

By Adam Wong on July 11, 2016 article link

 Hospitality Trust (SGX: Q1P) (A-HTrust) is a stapled group comprising Ascendas Hospitality Real Estate Investment Trust and Ascendas Hospitality Business Trust. The group invests in and manages a portfolio of hospitality properties across Asia Pacific.

The author attended the trust’s most recent AGM to find out more about its prospects in the face of a weakening global economy and flat tourism sector in some countries.

Here are 12 things I learned from Ascendas Hospitality Trust’s FY2016 AGM:

• A-HTrust’s portfolio comprises 11 hotels across seven cities in four countries – Singapore, Australia, China, and Japan. The trust’s entire portfolio is worth $1.5 billion – an increase of 11% year-on-year. Australia accounts for the largest proportion at 41% but the trust’s exposure down under is spread out evenly among six properties. The trust’s largest property, Park Hotel Clarke Quay in Singapore, accounts for 21% of the portfolio.
• A-HTrust’s current yield is 7.55%. The figure is near the trust’s historical low yield in 2015. Its historical high yield is 9.22% in 2013.
• Gross revenue and net property income (NPI) increased in same currency terms but decreased 5.3% and 2.7% respectively in Singapore dollar terms. This was mainly due to a weaker Yen and Australian dollar. Australia accounted for the largest proportion of NPI at 54.5% while Japan saw the largest increase in NPI year-on-year at 13.2%.
• Master leases accounted for 37.5% of NPI. The management revealed it aims to have master leases account for at least 50% of NPI for longer-term stability.
• Distribution per stapled security rose 6.9% year-on-year despite 5% retention of income by the trust. The increase was mainly due to a $2 million contribution from the divestment proceeds of a property – Pullman Cairns International.
• Average occupancy rates, average daily rates and revenue per available room (RevPAR) were all largely flat year-on-year in Australia and China. Only Oakwood Apartments Ariake Tokyo in Japan saw a large increase in RevPAR year-on-year at 23.3%. The rest of the trust’s properties are anchored by master lease agreements.
• A-HTrust’s gearing ratio decreased to 32.7% from 37.2% a year ago. As far as possible, the trust aims to borrow in the local currency where its properties are located to achieve a natural hedge. So for example, Australia accounts for 41% of the portfolio and, accordingly, 42.5% of the trust’s debt is in Australian dollars. To minimize exposure to interest rate volatility, 91.2% of borrowings are at fixed interest rates.
• Australia and Japan are seeing steady growth in international tourist arrivals. Australia saw 6.9 million tourists visit the country in 2015 – an 8% growth from the previous year. Japan saw even better numbers with 19.7 million tourists – a 47% growth from the previous year! International arrivals in Japan are forecasted to reach 40 million in 2020 with the Olympics being held in Tokyo that year. On a side note, one shareholder remarked that he thoroughly enjoyed his stay in one of A-HTrust’s recently refurbished hotels, Hotel Sunroute Osaka Namba, and recommended everyone to give it a try if in Osaka.
• Singapore and Beijing’s international arrivals remain flat. Singapore only saw 1% growth in tourist arrivals in 2015. While the flat tourist numbers will drag the trust’s performance in Singapore, Park Hotel Clarke Quay is anchored by a master lease with a high proportion fixed income paid to the AH-Trust. Beijing’s international arrivals have been falling from 5.2 million in 2011 to 4.2 million in 2015 – one of the reasons being the city’s bad air pollution. However, China’s domestic travel remains robust; 269 million domestic travelers visited their country’s capital in 2015 which has been growing at 7% per annum since 2011.
• A-HTrust has partnered with NASDAQ-listed Chinese hotel operator Huazhu Hotels Group to operate the trust’s Beijing hotels and tap on their local experience and knowledge in the Chinese market. Huazhu manages/operates over 2,700 hotels in 352 cities in China and has over 49 million members in its loyalty programme. CEO Tan Juay Hiang mentioned that Ibis Beijing Sanyuan has gotten good traction from Huazhu’s loyalty programme and is expecting good results from the partnership moving forward.
• In November 2015, A-HTrust announced that it received an expression of interest from an undisclosed party to acquire the entire trust. The management hired appointed a slew of advisors – JP Morgan, Wong Partnership, KPMG Corporate Finance, and Ernst & Young – to provide financial, legal and tax advice on the viability of the proposal. In the end, the board decided not to proceed with the transaction because they believed it was not in the best interests of shareholders. One well-known local activist investor was not impressed and questioned why so many high-powered advisors were needed to consider a non-binding expression of interest and which party bore the cost of the advisors. The CEO replied that the cost was borne by the trust. Another shareholder pressed to know the total costs involved and the CEO revealed that it was the region of $600,000. A number of shareholders then voiced their displeasure with the board that so much money was wasted for an exercise that eventually amounted to nothing.
• Our activist investor asked why the trust decided to structure itself as a stapled security: a REIT and a business trust. He pointed out that there are tax benefits for REITs – when a REIT pays out at least 90% of distributable income to unitholders – and questioned why A-HTrust would place only two hotels under its REIT and the other nine hotels under its business trust. He carried on to say that most stapled securities use a business trust to undertake property developments (where REITs have a limitation), after which they move the property to the REIT to be more tax efficient. The CEO replied A-HTrust has a stapled structure because a REIT in Singapore is only allowed to earn passive income (rent) and is not allowed to have an operational business. For A-HTrust, some of its hotels are not under a master lease and run on management contracts instead – and therefore can’t be placed under the REIT. In other words, the trust operationally runs the hotel business for some of its hotels. The CEO continued and said that while running a hotel operation means taking on more business risk compared to a master lease, there is also an upside when demand and room rates increase.